Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status

This new article addresses an increasingly popular question: are we in a secular bear market or a secular bull market? A number of recognized analysts have succumbed to the intoxicating power of the current cyclical bull market and have mistakenly taken up with hope for a longer run. They have adjusted their charts and forecasts to reflect a market charging ahead for years to come. But not everyone agrees. This article presents several secular bull charts and forecasts, then explains why we are still in a secular bear market with little chance of above-average returns over the next decade or so.

…”Of course you’re getting impatient. When will the stock market shift from secular bear to secular bull—or did it already? The implications are significant. Through much of the 2000s and into the 2010s, individual and institutional investors have weathered quite a storm of low returns and high volatility. Are we done being battered? From today, can you reasonably expect above-average secular bull returns like we saw in the 1980s and ’90s … or do we face another decade or longer of below-average secular bear returns?”