Updated
Through 2015

document: Converging on the Horizon

Converging on the Horizon

Beware: there are two series of short-term trends that are converging on their limits. Stock market history and earnings cycle history are converging. The goals of this updated article are (1) to dispel the notion that P/E is low today and (2) to highlight the risks of a decline in 2014 or soon thereafter.